Coventry City almost got transfer deadline day spot on. As the deadline approached and the normal panic was going on elsewhere, the club tweeted about the Chinese takeaway they had ‘signed’ on a short-term deal. This series of tweets was eventually followed by the announcement of two young defenders signed on loan (because we don’t have enough loan players in our squad) from Premier League clubs. Everyone expected that was the news over with for the day and I went to bed happy, only to find out a few hours later that the club had sold James Maddison. I’ll deal with whether the deal is good for the club shortly, but having poked fun at the madness of the deadline day earlier in the evening, putting out what many fans would consider bad news after the deadline had passed left a sour taste. But with the initial anger now subsided, the question is whether this is a good deal for all three parties?
James Maddison
For those who haven’t been following his career, Maddison, 19, is a skillful attacking midfielder who broke into the Sky Blues team last season. Many observers consider him to be the best graduate of our academy since Chris Kirkland (who never really fulfilled his potential) and during the window he was linked with a host of top Premier League clubs. But from Maddison’s perspective, I think the fact he didn’t go to a bigger club is a good thing. We have to remember that Dele Alli is very much the exception, and teenagers almost never go from League One to a regular starting role at a big club. Maddison is much less experienced than Alli, has a weaker all-round game (for the time being at least) and is much shorter and slighter. If he had moved to a club like Arsenal, he would have had to settle for a handful of cup appearances and maybe a few loan spells in the Championship in his first couple of seasons at the club.
At Norwich, Maddison can challenge for a first team place straight away. The fact that the club might be in the Championship when he arrives is not necessarily a bad thing for his development either. Indeed, moving to a club challenging for promotion in the Championship might be more beneficial to his development than moving to a club in facing a relegation battle in the Premier League. The only issue would be if Norwich failed to gain promotion back to the Premier League, but if his personal progression continues at its current rate he’d have no shortage of offers if he needed to move again in 2017 to reach the Premier League.
Norwich City
Whilst no club wants to miss out on a promising young talent, on first inspection the Maddison deal looks like an odd one for Norwich. The club faces a very real threat of relegation, and this season more than ever, clubs should be trying everything possible to secure their Premier League status and benefit from the new, ridiculously big TV deal which starts next season. Therefore spending money on a player and then immediately loaning him back seems like a very odd move, as he won’t be able to help the club fight for survival.
Therefore the fact that Norwich still felt it was worthwhile to sign Maddison tells you everything you need to know about the ‘undisclosed fee.’ The initial fee is clearly very low by Premier League standards – a figure of £2.5 million has been mentioned, and that sounds about right. If Norwich spent much more than that on a player, they would be wanting immediate returns on their investment.
Inevitably there will be a whole string of add-ons, which if the reports are true could take the transfer up to a potential £9.5 million. However, as the buying club, there is relatively little risk structuring the transfer in this way. If the player isn’t a success, very few of these add-ons will be triggered and the gamble on a young talent won’t have cost you too much. The only way all of the add-ons will be triggered is if the player and club enjoy success together. To give on example, one of the add-ons might be that Norwich have to pay an extra £1 million if they qualify for Europe with Maddison in their squad. In situations like this, the rewards of success would more than cover the additional fee, and the payments would be spread out across many years. So Norwich have been able to acquire a highly-rated young talent without unduly gambling with their finances, so it looks a very good deal for them.
Coventry City
The biggest benefit of the transfer from Coventry’s perspective is surely the fact that Maddison has been loaned back until the end of the season. The club’s current form is awful, but promotion via the playoffs remains a realistic prospect, and Maddison can play a key role in that. Some fans may think the initial fee is too low, but £2.5 million is hardly loose change in League One, especially for a player with only 31 senior appearances under his belt.
Ultimately though, the number of add-ons triggered will determine how good the deal was for Coventry City. They have the potential to be extremely lucrative – Southampton had a clause guaranteeing them 25% of Gareth Bale’s next transfer fee. Unfortunately they sold that right in 2009 for £3 million, but it shows what is possible.
Sadly, it’s also possible that Maddison’s move won’t be a success and Coventry will receive very little on top of the initial fee. Maybe the higher level will be too much for him, or maybe injuries, which have already been a major part of his professional career, will stall his progress. Coventry will be hoping he realises his potential, but personally I think a better strategy would have been to have held on to him for another year minimum, as then you at least have some control over his development, and if that development went well you could sell him for a much higher initial fee, if you so desired.
Overall the Maddison deal looks like a good one for the player and his new employers. Sadly it might not be so good for my club.
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